Pillaging Makes A Comeback, Threatens 2009

For any of you that were here during Argentina’s historic economic meltdown in 2001-2002, the word “saqueo” will sound familiar. As a noun, it’s somewhat like a “pillaging, looting, or a ravaging” of something, most likely a food store or supermarket. 

“The store was pillaged during the riots,” you could say. In Spanish, saqueo describes something similar. If dozens of people plunder a supermarket in search of food, you could say there had been a saqueo.

Happily, this word hasn’t been used much in recent years. As the economy has boomed, the unemployment rate dropped – and, until mid 2007, poverty declined – fewer people found reason to pillage stores for food. 

But that pleasant reality may be changing. And next year if, as many people are predicting, the economy cools so quickly that it turns into a recession, we could start hearing people use the word again. If things get really rough, we could even see a return to the days in which images of saqueos were the focus of nightly newscasts. Back in the days of the meltdown, saqueos were a sad and entirely unsettling daily reality. Now, it appears, they are making somewhat of a comeback.

This year, for the first time since 2003, saqueos started appearing around the country in small numbers. So far there have been nine saqueos, according to a report released Monday by the think tank Nueva Mayoría. “After a four year absence, saqueos showed up again in 2008,” the report said. Seven of the saqueos occurred in Buenos Aires Province, one in Santa Fe and one in Corrientes.

“Over the past 17 years  this phenomenon has appeared on six occasions (1989, 1990, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008) and the appearances can be divided into three distinct political contexts,” Nueva Mayoría reported. 

The first period was from 1989-1990, a time in which hyperinflation fueled poverty. In 1989 there were 676 saqueos, all of which helped lead then-president Raúl Alfonsín to leave office early. In 1990, the number of saqueos had declined to just 95. The second outbreak began in 2001, when 875 saqueos stormed the country and formed part of a cultural and legal meltdown that led then-president Fernando de la Rua to flee from power in helicopter from atop the Casa Rosada. In 2002, after the country had defaulted on more than $100 billion debt and devalued its currency, there were 151 saqueos. By 2003, when the economy was starting to boom again, there were just 14.

That was followed by a four-year period of relative peace and stability. This year the saqueos began in March just as the country was heading into a fierce – and entirely avoidable – conflict between farmers and President Cristina Fernández. Then, a long lull until this month, when the other five saqueos occurred. In addition, Nueva Mayoría says 10 saqueos were prevented by police agents.

“The socio-political context in which this phenomenon is taking place is the international financial crisis that has seriously affected the country via layoffs and a retraction in consumer spending,” Nueva Mayoría said. 

Historically, most of the saqueos (47%) have occurred in Buenos Aires Province.

What appears to link the saqueo-free periods in the 1990s and again earlier this century is a decline in poverty. The end of hyperinflation in the early 1990s helped usher in a period of economic growth and job creation. A similar, though more impressive poverty-reduction process occurred between 2003 and 2007, during which time poverty plummeted from 54% in early 2003 to just 17.8% this year, according to the national statistics agency, INDEC. (In an earlier post, I looked at how economists believe poverty is again on the rise. The government disputes this notion, but provides sketchy data to back up its claims.)

Almost nobody doubts that 2009 will be a challenging year, not just for Argentina. Indeed, in some ways Argentina is better positioned to deal with the crisis than are many developed countries. But if next year proves to be as bad as some economists think, it may not be the best year for supermarkets in the province of Buenos Aires. And if things get really bad, we may start hearing a lot more people using the word saqueo again.

Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.

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