Voters Deal Severe Blow To Kirchners’ Power

Voters on Sunday dealt a powerful blow to former president Néstor Kirchner and his six-year-old grip on power. Argentines lined up throughout the country in massive numbers to vote for opposition candidates who said it was time to put an end to the former president’s antagonistic, confrontational style.

Buenos Aires City Mayor Mauricio Macri, whose Union Pro Party defeated Kirchner in the province of Buenos Aires, said voters sent a clear message to Kirchner and his wife, President Cristina Fernandez: “They sent a message that is absolutely clear, which is, ‘Enough.’”

Opposition leader and wealthy businessman Francisco De Narvaez, who competed head-to-head with Kirchner in the all-important province of Buenos Aires, beat the former president by more than two percentage points. It was a relatively mild win in terms of the actual arithmetic but a huge victory in terms of its symbolism. Kirchner had bet heavily that he could beat De Narváez and his gamble turned out to be the worst bet of his political life.

Opposition candidates beat Kirchner-backed candidates in the country’s five top electoral districts: the City of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires Province, Cordoba Province, Mendoza and Santa Fe. Kirchner even lost in his home province of Santa Cruz, dealing a harsh psychological blow to the First Couple, which dominated the province’s politics for many years.

Kirchner’s ruling Victory Front Party got single-digit support in key congressional races in Cordoba and Santa Fe, less than 12% in the City of Buenos Aires and only about a quarter of the vote in Mendoza. This election was many things, but nothing if not a resounding symbolic defeat for the First Couple.

Here is a rough guide to the election’s big winners and losers:

WINNERS:

• FRANCISCO DE NARVAEZ: De Narváez, or “el colorado” as he is known, is now a national figure and well placed to become the next governor of the province of Buenos Aires. But he’s Colombian by birth, meaning he couldn’t run for the presidency even if he wanted to. This fact alone will limit his evolution on the national stage.
• GABRIELA MICHETTI: The former No. 2 in the City of Buenos Aires won big in her bid to represent the city in the Lower House of Congress. She is now well-positioned to become a leading voice nationally.
• CARLOS REUTEMANN: The Santa Fe Senator and former champion race car driver is now considered the man most likely to take control of the Peronist party and lead it into the 2011 presidential election. Peronists abhor a power vacuum and Reutemman is now in poll position to fill the void left Monday when Kirchner resigned as head of the party. Buenos Aires Governor Daniel Scioli is set to take over the party’s leadership from Kirchner but it’s unclear how long the governor, a former world speed boat champion, will be able to hang on. After all, he lost alongside Kirchner in his bid to lead the Victory Front Party to a win in the province.
• MAURICIO MACRI: The Buenos Aires mayor and former Boca Juniors president, who backed Michetti’s Union Pro ticket in Capital Federal, is on track to become a 2011 presidential candidate himself. Macri’s speech Sunday night was clearly designed to appeal to a national audience.
• FARMERS: Argentina’s farmers were at the top of the Kirchners’ enemies list. The “oligarchs” as the Kirchners have labeled them, backed numerous candidates, some of whom won. The new congress, which doesn’t take power until December, will be more inclined to vote for policies that favor the agriculture sector.
• THE MEDIA: Many of the winning opposition candidates spoke of the need for the government to be more open to the press. They criticized the First Couple’s traditionally hostile attitude toward the media. Both Kirchner and Fernandez took digs at the media after the election.
• THE POLLING FIRM POLIARQUIA: More than any other firm in the country, Poliarquia nailed the polls preceding Sunday’s election, predicting that De Narváez would beat Kirchner by 2.5 points, which is almost exactly what happened.
• JULIO COBOS: The vice president’s party defeated the Kirchner’s party in Mendoza province, lending fresh air to Cobos’ plan to run for the presidency in 2011.
• PINO SOLANAS: The charismatic 70-year-old filmmaker proved to be a masterful dark horse candidate in the City of Buenos Aires. He came in second to Michetti and will now have a larger voice on the national stage.
• DIALOGUE: Virtually all of the major opposition candidates have spoken repeatedly of the need to improve dialog in the country. Almost all candidates have called for a more civil approach to debate. If remains to be seen if this call will get anywhere but more people in power will be talking about it in the future.
• ARGENTINA: As I said in a radio interview last week, the country itself is the big winner in this election. The election was largely free from trouble and was conducted fairly. Like the results or not, it was another step forward for a country whose democracy is only 26 years old. In this sense, everyone was a winner on Sunday.

LOSERS:

• THE FIRST COUPLE: Clearly Kirchner and the president suffered a setback in the midterm election, losing their majority control in both houses of Congress. Before the election, both had warned that this event could lead to apocalyptic consequences for the country and take it back to the dark days of the 2001-2002 economic crisis. In a rambling, unprepared speech in the wee hours of Sunday morning, Kirchner accepted his defeat but he failed to magnanimously congratulate his chief opponent. Fernández, meanwhile, offered the second press conference of her presidency on Monday, opening herself up to the press in a welcome gesture. But she too lost an opportunity to appear magnanimous. Instead, she talked at length about the minute details of the election results, focusing her attention on largely irrelevant details and percentage points. Roughly seven out of 10 votes in the country were for opposition candidates. It’s unclear how the First Couple will adapt to the country’s new political reality. It could be an opportunity for growth, as was U.S. President Bill Clinton’s shocking midterm defeat in 1994. But it remains to be seen how the chips will fall over the next two years.
• DANIEL SCIOLI: The Buenos Aires governor was on the wrong side of this race. Like Kirchner, he bet heavily on the idea that he could help the government’s Victory Front ticket win in the province. But the gamble failed and left Scioli less presidential than he has looked in years. Scioli ran in the election, even though it’s widely believed that he never planned to actually take congressional office if he won.
• HUGO CHAVEZ: Almost all of the winning opposition candidates have questioned Argentina’s support for Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. The Kirchners will now be under more pressure to dampen their support for the controversial leader.
• CABINET OFFICIALS: Presidential cabinet officials, including the economy minister, have long been able to avoid testifying openly before Congress. That’s about to change, say opposition leaders who will now try to force these officials to speak before the Congress.

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